Quality analysis about prior recessions, and when will this end?

I'm no financial expert. But I do work with a financial advising firm. Kenneth Smith, CEO of Empirical, has great, fact based insights that he shares with clients. When I feel anxiety, his analysis helps to calm me down (smile).

While the financial markets aren't a perfect proxy for good/bad news in recruiting, they certainly correlate. So I've grabbed a few things that I found interesting in his February letter to clients, and thought I'd share.

Timing of Recession and Market Recovery

1. The average recession length was around ten months with the longest recession lasting sixteen months and the shortest lasting six months. We are approaching fourteen months in the current recession. (JV: Remember, this recession officially started in Dec 2007)
   

2. The market bottomed and began to recover, on average, five months before the official recession end dates. It is reasonable to expect the market to begin to rebound prior to the end of the current recession as well.
   

So what? Well, I see this and wonder if we're hitting bottom now. If so, bring on the turnaround! If not, hurry up and get to the bottom.

Full article, with a great overview of past recession timing and turnarounds on the last page, here: http://www.successfulinvestingradio.com/file/ewm_recessions.pdf

Which Social Media Sites Would You Pay For?

Techcrunch's Erick Schonfeld reports on a survey by Abrams Research that shows which social media sites over 200 social media elite say is best for business. It's interesting, but maybe not surprising, to see Twitter on top, beating out Linkedin, for social media services they'd recommend a business pay for.

"...if you ask, which one would they recommend for businesses to pay for (if they had to), Twitter beats Facebook by more than two to one (39.6 percent vs. 15.3 percent). LinkedIn again comes in second. Why did Twitter come out on top. It is seen as an efficient way for companies to get their marketing messages out there. One typical response:

It’s the quickest way I’ve seen to spread information virally to a wide scope of people attached in a lot of random ways.

The survey was taken at Social Media Week 2009 and included “founders, bloggers, journalists, entrepreneurs and members of the Twitterati.” Basically it is the opinion of the insular social media elite. So what they say may just be wishful thinking, but the results are good fodder for discussion nonetheless."

1. Which social media service would you be most likely to pay for?

• Facebook 32.2%
• Linkedin 29.7%
• Twitter 21.8%
• YouTube 13.4%
• MySpace 1.5%
• Digg 1.5%

2. What social media service would you advise a business pay for?

• Twitter 39.6%
• Linkedin 21.3%
• YouTube 18.8%
• Facebook 15.3%
• Digg 3.0%
• MySpace 2.0%

3. Which social media service will be the first to die?

• ImInLikeWithYou.com 41.1%
• Bebo 12.4%
• FriendFeed 8.9%
• Meetup.com 8.4%
• Flixster 6.9%
• Digg 5.0%
• Last.fm 3.0%
• Other 14.4%

4. Which corporation has done the best job of using social media? (Respondents were asked to choose one; these were the most popular choices, ranked accordingly)

1. Zappos (online shopping site)
2. Obama (campaign and presidency)
3. CNN
4. Comcast (“Comcast Cares”)
5. Jetblue
6. Dell
7. Burger King
8. NPR
9. New York Times
10. Ford

Are you on twitter? Is your company on Twitter? Facebook? I'm sure you're already on LinkedIn, right?

http://twitter.com/vlastelica

Are you going to ERE's Spring Conference? 10% Discount

Hope to see you at ERE this Spring


As a speaker, I can offer you a special 10% off registration discount. Just email me (john [at] recruitingtoolbox [dot] com) if you'd like the code.

Check out the agenda here
http://www.ere.net/events/2009/spring/ataglance.asp

I'll be presenting on how we can help our hiring managers succeed, as well as co-leading a pre-conference workshop for recruiting managers and directors with Jeremy Eskenazi on building and leading a consultative recruiting team.

The conference starts March 30. And it's in beautiful San Diego. Email me if you plan to attend so that we can be sure to connect.

Learn about Recruiting Metrics - Webinar: Feb 19th

Leveraging Recruiting Metrics with John Vlastelica

Join me next Thursday, Feb 19th, at 10am Pacific, for a 1 hour, info packed webinar on recruiting metrics.

We'll talk about the problems with traditional metrics and the keys to measuring speed, quality, costs, hiring manager and candidate satisfaction.

Like all of my training, this webinar will be real world, practical, and ready for immediate use.

To learn more, or to register, go to http://www.kennedyinfo.com/ProfessionalDevelopment/detail/20265

New Website, 2 New Team Members

New Website: www.RecruitingToolbox.com
We've just updated our website to include more information about the real world consulting services, custom recruitment training, and
customizable tools we offer. Please check it out. We still need to break up some text heavy sections. Would love your feedback.

New Team Members: Welcome Kristin and Edith
Kristin Westby and I worked together at AT&T Wireless in the late '90s (she was a staffing manager there), and Edith Rothenberg and I worked together on a project a few years ago (she was a staffing manager who also led the interviewer and recruiter training efforts for all of Microsoft).

Kristin will focus on project management for new custom, hosted recruiting toolbox buildouts and Edith will focus on custom training design and delivery. Check out their bios to learn more.